Domino Theory - Economics

2월 말에 아고라의 한 누군가가 이것에 대한 글을 썼던 것으로 기억이 난다.

Ecomonist 글에 대해서 기획재정부의 한 대변인이 강한 항의와 Economist의 편집장의 답변도 보면 좋을 것 같다.

 

우선 아래 기사는 여러 국가에 대해서 경제적인 위험에 대한 경각의 기사라 할 수 있다. 그래프만 봐도 대충 기사가 눈에 들어오는데, 자세한 것은 보고 직접 속으로 판단할 수 있을 것이다.

 

 

출처

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13184631

 

Domino theory

Feb 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Where could emerging-market contagion spread next?

 

THE drought of foreign capital is beginning to wreck many economies in central and eastern Europe. Currencies, shares and bonds are tumbling, and some economists fear that one or more of these countries could default on its foreign debts. Emerging-market crises have a nasty habit of spreading as investors flee one country after another. Some Middle Eastern markets, notably Dubai, are already in trouble. But which of the larger emerging economies are most vulnerable?

To answer that question in the past, economists used to pay most attention to the solvency of governments, and hence their debt-to-GDP ratios. But today, the biggest risk in the emerging world comes not from sovereign borrowing, but from the debts of firms and banks. As foreign capital dries up, they will find it harder to refinance maturing debts or to raise new loans.

 

..........

 

 

항의문

출처 (http://media.daum.net/politics/administration/view.html?cateid=1017&newsid=20090308183107389&p=viewsn)

South Korea's debt 

SIR - Your article about "emerging-market contagion" ranked countries according to their vulnerability to the global credit-crunch (Economics focus, February 28th). But you did not reflect the actual situation of the Korean economy. The article portrayed South Korea as the joint third-riskiest among the countries surveyed, citing "large short-term foreign debts and highly leveraged banks". This is simply not the case. 

Let me provide you with accurate figures. South Korea's short-term external debt is 75% of its foreign-exchange reserves and it continues to decline. The South Korean banks' average loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 118% as of the end of 2008 and has been on the decrease since last June. 

Thus, the overall risk assessment for the Korean economy, as described in your article, relies upon incorrect information and estimates. 

Cheol-kyu Park 
Spokesperson 
Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance 
Seoul 

 

 

Economics 편집자 의 답변

Editor's note: 

Our figure for short-term debt as a percentage of foreign-exchange reserves included all debt due within the next 12 months, the definition favoured by the IMF. At the end of December this was 96%. The figure of 75% includes only liabilities with an original maturity of up to one year; it excludes maturing long-term debt. Our loan-to-deposit ratio covered all commercial and specialised banks and excluded certificates of deposits, the same definition used for all the countries we surveyed. The Bank of Korea's latest figures show this to be 136% at the end of December.